It has been four months since the first case of the novel Coronavirus was reported in the U.S. Yet, the mobility industry – full of legacy companies and disruptors all working to accelerate innovation and growth within this space – has seen months, years and even decades of work significantly impacted in this short amount of time.
So where exactly do we go from here? First, it’s important to examine how far we’ve come.
Over the last several years, micromobility, in the form of shared bikes, e-bikes, e-scooters, and electric skateboards, has provided mainstream options for those in urban cities across the U.S. While access and safety have pushed these services and product offerings to the forefront of our industry and collective conscience, the biggest hurdle was always consumer comfort and adoption. In the age of COVID-19, those hurdles remain, but comfort now also equates to virus transmission risk, and adoption depends on personal protective equipment of the rider, and assurance that disinfectant is part of daily company maintenance.
Early consumer behavior research indicates that most forms of micromobility have and will continue to take a hit, and will require new designs and guidelines to protect users and operators. For example, e-scooters shared by many will likely require passengers to wear gloves, much like you’d wear a helmet on a motorcycle or grab the pole on a subway. At the same time, ride-hailing and autonomous shuttle providers will need to determine the best design approach for keeping drivers and passengers safe. How many partitions make the experience challenging and uncomfortable? Does comfort even matter during a pandemic?
As many micromobility solutions suffer, some personal mobility and delivery services are likely to see a significant surge. There has already been an immediate boom in e-bike sales, new partnerships and opportunities for drones sprouting up. In Michigan, Refraction AI’s bot delivery service has experienced an accelerated timeline in becoming viable.
We can also expect to see a massive resurgence of personal car commuting and ownership over the next 6-12 months as people continue to practice varying levels of distancing. This will be the priority for OEMs and suppliers who are likely to continue prioritizing EVs due to industry standards. Based on the need to revisit business models and a lack of profitability, these organizations may slow down some of their efforts with AVs and fleet sales.
Let me be clear: in the long run, the future of AVs and complementing technology is not bleak. For companies that are focused on vehicle technology, there are still opportunities to leverage the AI they’ve developed to make vehicles and public transportation safer.
In the short term, we will likely see a heavier reliance on public-private partnerships. This is where Michigan has a head start on many states, with the strong foundation we have built leveraging partnerships to drive mobility solutions. It will be critical to not only focus on the types of technologies but diversify to new modes of mobility. Even today, think about how automotive manufacturers have bent traditional business models to support other industries, most notably in the medical field.
Automation and connectivity are going to continue to be relevant in our new normal, as will a need to design and engineer hardware differently. The future of mobility before the global pandemic was defined as the efficient movement of riders and goods. Hidden in that definition was the basic human needs of the actual people commuting in those vehicles and moving those goods. Needs that expand beyond just arriving safely and on-time. Now, after the crisis that forced the world to pause, the future of mobility will again have to rely as much on humans as it has on technology.
Trevor Pawl
Trevor Pawl is the Senior Vice President of Business Innovation at the Michigan Economic Development Corporation. In this role, Trevor leads the State of Michigan’s economic development programs focused on the future of mobility (PlanetM), supply chain (Pure Michigan Business Connect), entrepreneurship and international trade. Since 2013, these initiatives have facilitated over $10 billion in new business for Michigan companies and sustained over 46,000 local jobs across the state.