This is the second installment of a 2-part feature where we will be exploring Mexico’s clean energy goals and the steps they will need to take in order to meet them. Read the first part here.

In the last post we concluded that it’s unlikely that Mexico will comply with its Paris Agreement goals, due to several reasons such as lack of permits being granted and the different changes to the regulatory framework.

For 2020, the Clean Energy Goal was set at 28.30%. On July 1st, 2021, the Ministry of Energy released the new Prodesen 2021-2035.  In accordance with the available information under the Prodesen 2020-2034 published early this year, which was updated until the 3Q of 2020, it was shown that the percentage of generation reported was 27.56% which is 0.74% below the goal.

In accordance with the Prodesen 2021-2035 it was reported that in 2020, Mexico produced 27.85%¹ of Clean Energy at the end of 2020, which means that the goal was not reached by 0.45%. However, it is important to mention that the foregoing figures are if efficient cogeneration is taken as 100% Clean Energy, which is not correct as the CRE published a methodology to account for only the Clean Energy in this technology.

If numbers are adapted to this methodology up to the 3Q of 2020 the amount of Clean Energy is 25.44% and in the Prodesen the amount increases to 25.64% of Clean Energy generated, in that sense Mexico was 2.66% below the goal.

Fig 1. Clean Energy Goals tracking, from PRODESEN 2021-2035

According to the figure above, it is a fact that Mexico will not reach the Clean Energy Goals in 2024 by around 3% of generation. This is in line with the reasons presented earlier; the restrictions that this administration is placing on renewable energy will make it more difficult to achieve these goals. Also, from the above figure, it can be noted that Mexico will be in line in 2025 with the Clean Energy Goals, considering that in 2050 we made the commitment to achieve 50% of Clean Energy. In other words, this Administration is keeping the same policy till the rest of its term.

In accordance with international clean energy goals and emission reduction objectives, it’s a fact that Mexico might be subject to the consequences that the international community decides with respect to unfulfilled countries, especially in matters of world trade, financial mechanisms, investments by companies with climate commitments, and other relevant aspects of the international relationship at this time. It is difficult to predict what would the consequences at this stage, but in the future, we will be seeing what the other countries decide in terms of sanctions to non-compliant countries.

[1] Considering efficient cogeneration as 100% clean.